2026 Season · Wrapped
The season, by the numbers.
Late March through the College World Series. Every pick graded from the send-time ledger — no cherry-picking, no rewriting the record after the fact.
The stars meant something
Higher conviction, higher hit rate.
We rate every pick 1–5 stars by how strongly the signals agree. Each tier of conviction won more often than the one below it.
The probabilities were honest
When we said 70%, they won ~70%.
A win probability is only useful if it's calibrated. Each dot is a group of picks — the closer it sits to the dotted line, the more our stated confidence matched what actually happened. Bigger dot, more games.
Pick of the year
The call the market didn't see coming.
The book hung NC State as a +170 home underdog — an implied ~37% to win. Our model disagreed, rating them a 55% favorite and stamping it a 4-star pick. The Wolfpack didn't just win — they ran Duke off the field.
Picking winners isn't the same as beating the market. This off-season we're rebuilding how we measure and price our edge — testing every change against the closing line before it ever reaches your inbox. The goal for 2027: sharper picks you can trust.
We'll be back for first pitch in February. Until then — thanks for a great season.
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