The methodology and limits behind the numbers.
OddsDugout is a college baseball analytics service. It combines schedules, weather, stadium context, odds, and team and pitcher indicators to produce model-based predictions and explanatory insights. It is not a sportsbook and does not accept or place wagers.
Published picks are graded against game results using the pick recorded in the send-time ledger, rather than a later version of the model prediction. Structured picks retain their market, side, line, and price; older records without a structured market are graded as moneyline picks. Pushes and voids are excluded from the win-rate denominator.
Published pick accuracy is the share of decided published picks that won. The homepage reports this historical record and groups results by the star rating recorded when picks were surfaced. A star rating is a model confidence signal, not a guarantee of a win or a profit. Win rate alone does not show whether a pick beat the market price.
The season recap is a fixed, human-reviewed snapshot of a completed season's model predictions. The homepage published-pick record uses picks actually surfaced to users. These are different samples and should not be treated as interchangeable performance measures. Past performance does not guarantee future results.